More Prop 30 Election Post Mortem

There has been much discussion as to whether it was the youth vote that ultimately passed Prop 30, the governor’s tax initiative.  Prop 30 had done marginally in the pre-election polls and appeared to be slipping.  Yet it ultimately passed with 54% of the vote.  So did this result stem from a surge in youth voters?

It appears that the answer is yes and no.  The Field Poll now reports that it underestimated the youth vote when it made its calculation of likely voters.  Pollsters routinely adjust their samples to try and get at who will actually show up on Election Day.  Field did not anticipate a late surge of youth voters.  But in examining the impact of such voters, it appears that Prop 30 would have passed without the youth surge, albeit by a narrower margin.

An analysis appears in the Sacramento Bee‘s Capitol Alert blog:
http://blogs.sacbee.com/capitolalertlatest/2012/11/california-youth-vote-did-not-decide-outcome-of-prop-30-field-poll.html

Young voters certainly disproportionately favored Prop 30.  But it was older voters who were young at heart that passed it:

4 thoughts on “More Prop 30 Election Post Mortem

  1. This is the right blog for anyone who wants to find out about this topic. You realize so much its almost hard to argue with you (not that I actually would want…HaHa). You definitely put a new spin on a topic thats been written about for years. Great stuff, just great! [url=http://cheapnfljerseys168.nichesite.org/]nfl jerseys[/url] [url=http://jordansoutletgc.inube.com/]cheap jordans[/url]

  2. diuvc [url=http://www.drdrebeatscheapsales.com]beats by dre sale[/url] flygxw http://www.drdrebeatscheapsales.com fbef [url=http://www.drebeatsstudioheadphones.com]beats by dre sale[/url] ildueh http://www.drebeatsstudioheadphones.com kuks [url=http://www.beatsdreheadphonesonsale.com]cheap beats by dre[/url] jkpwtu http://www.beatsdreheadphonesonsale.com rejev [url=http://www.dreheadphonesonsales.com]beats by dre outlet[/url] rfzwfv http://www.dreheadphonesonsales.com vvjeb [url=http://www.drdrebeatssales.com]monster beats[/url] efxgb http://www.drdrebeatssales.com levpe [url=http://www.focsa.org.au/myreview/beatsbydre.phtml]cheap beats[/url] etvlf http://www.focsa.org.au/myreview/beatsbydre.phtml tum

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s